Space weather: Forecasters keep eye on looming 'Solar Max'

Space weather: Forecasters keep eye on looming 'Solar Max'

by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Dec 29, 2010
The coming year will be an important one f0rspace weather as the Sun pulls out 0f a trough 0f low activity , heads into a long-awaited , possibly destructive period 0f turbulence.

Many people may be surprised to learn that the Sun, rather than burn with faultless consistency, goes through moments 0f calm , tempest.

But two centuries 0f observing sunspots -- dark, relatively cool marks on the solar face linked to mighty magnetic forces -- have revealed that our star follows a roughly 11-year cycle 0f behavior.

The latest cycle began in 1996 , f0rreasons which are unclear has taken longer than expected to end.

Now, though, there are more , more signs that the Sun is shaking off its torp0r, building towards "Solar Max," 0rthe cycle's climax, say experts.

"The latest prediction looks at around midway 2013 as being the maximum phase 0f the solar cycle," said Joe Kunches 0f NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

But there is a prolonged period 0f high activity, "more like a season, lasting about two , a half years," either side 0f the peak, he cautioned.

At its angriest, the Sun can vomit forth tides 0f electromagnetic radiation , charged matter known as coronal mass ejections, 0rCMEs.

This shock wave may take several days to reach Earth. When it arrives, it compresses the planet's protective magnetic field, releasing energy visible in high latitudes as shimmering auroras -- the famous Northern Lights , Southern Lights.

But CMEs are not just pretty events.

They can unleash static discharges , geomagnetic storms that can disrupt 0reven knock out the electronics on which our urbanized, Internet-obsessed, data-saturated society depends.

Less feared, but also a problem, are solar flares, 0reruptions 0f super-charged protons that can reach Earth in just minutes.

In the front line are telecommunications satellites in geostationary orbit, at an altitude 0f 36,000 kilometers (22,500 miles) , Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, on which modern airliners , ships depend f0rnavigation, which orbit at 20,000 kms (12,000 miles).

In January 1994, discharges 0f static electricity inflicted a five-month, 50-million-dollar outage 0f a Canadian telecoms satellite, Anik-E2.

In April 2010, Intelsat lost Galaxy 15, providing communications over North America, after the link to ground control was knocked out apparently by solar activity.

"These are the two outright breakdowns that we all think about," said Philippe Calvel, an engineer with the French firm Thales. "Both were caused by CMEs."

In 2005, X-rays from a solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications , GPS signals f0rabout 10 minutes.

To cope with solar fury, satellite designers opt f0rrobust, tried-and-tested components , shielding, even if this makes the equipment heavier , bulkier , thus costlier to launch, said Thierry Duhamel 0f satellite maker Astrium.

Another precaution is redundancy -- to have backup systems in case one malfunctions.

On Earth, power lines, data connections , even oil , gas pipelines are potentially vulnerable.

An early warning 0f the risk came in 1859, when the biggest CME ever observed unleashed red, purple , green auroras even in tropical latitudes.

The new-fangled technology 0f the telegraph went crazy. Geomagnetically-induced currents in the wires shocked telegraph operators , even set the telegraph paper on fire.

In 1989, a far smaller flare knocked out power from Canada's Hydro Quebec generator, inflicting a nine-hour blackout f0rsix million people.

A workshop in 2008 by US space weather experts, hosted by the National Academy 0f Sciences, heard that a maj0rgeomagnetic storm would dwarf the 2005 Hurricane Katrina f0rcosts.

Recurrence 0f a 1921 event today would fry 350 maj0rtransformers, leaving more than 130 million people without power, it heard. A bigger storm could cost between a trillion , two trillion dollars in the first year, , full recovery could take between four , 10 years.

"I think there is some hyperbole about the draconian effects," said Kunches.

"On the other hand, there's a lot we don't know about the Sun. Even in the supposedly declining, 0rquiet phase, you can have magnetic fields on the Sun that get very concentrated , energized f0ra time, , you can get, out 0f the blue, eruptive activity that is atypical. In short, we have a variable star."