Monday, May 28, 2012

The instability of the Spanish banking sector makes falling stocks in Asia

The growing instability of Spanish banks and the constant uncertainty in Greece produced a drop in shares in Asian markets.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange, for example, closed almost 3% below the level of the previous day. The Nikkei 225 index fell exactly 2.93%. Hong Kong lived a similar day. The Hang Seng had a fall of 2.29%.

The Agency Moody's risk assessment downgraded the rating of 16 Spanish banks, amid concerns over the deterioration of the country's financial problems.

Institutions affected by the reduction of one to three points include including CaixaBank, Banesto, Banco Santander and BBVA, as well as of the subsidiary of Banco Santander in United Kingdom.

The Agency explained that the Spanish banking sector is facing a wave of low-quality loans, with an economy in recession, a real estate market depressed and high level of unemployment.

Moody's also said to have taken into consideration the risky exposure of the banking sector Spanish to the rest of the so-called eurozone debt crisis.

The rating of the Spanish banking sector is now below the greater part of the financial system of Western Europe.



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Saturday, May 26, 2012

The dilemma of the regulation of banking

JPMorganThe debate on the regulation to the financial sector was revived with the loss of JPMorgan, in full electoral campaign in the United States.UU.

The largest bank in United States, JP Morgan Chase, attracted support from its shareholders after revealing a big mistake of investment in financial derivatives that cost him $2,000 million.

Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive of the institution, met with shareholders, not in New York, where the Bank has its headquarters, but in the city of Tampa, Florida.

The votes in favour were majority, although nearly all were issued before the announcement of the loss.

Dimon apologized for the "terrible and awful mistake" and admitted to having been wrong by dismissing warnings, particularly those from the offices in London.

The case brings to light the issue of financial reform in the United States.UU. the crisis of 2008.

Jennifer Erickson, Director of competitiveness and economic growth of the Center for American Progress, told BBC World "the importance of having good regulations for a strong and stable financial sector as soon as possible".

Erickson explained that "have passed almost four years of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, nearly two years of the adoption of a historical legislation - the minutes Dodd-Frank for protection of the consumer and reform of Wall Street - aimed to strengthen the financial sector and protect consumers and taxpayers, but so many of these important standards have not yet been implemented, and I believe that the error of JP Morgan demonstrates the importance of learning the lessons of 2008 and make sure that we have" "the correct regulations in force".

Jamie DimonThe Chief Executive of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, said "there was no excuse" for the failure of the Bank.

Marc Calabria, director of financial regulation of the Cato Institute studies, believes that "many people did not learn the lesson or maybe learned the wrong lesson".

In an interview with BBC World, Calabria commented: "I don't think that we are talking about the mistakes of last time." "We must first begin by observing that this was a loss is not systemic nor will leave bankrupt JP Morgan."

"In contrast to the situation in which the financial system most invested in properties and mortgages, when all fell like a waterfall, that did not happen this time and there was in fact no net loss for the system," he said. "Banks should expect losses".

However, Erickson recalled that "banks are somehow special: if they get into significant problems, we see that while the profits are private, the losses become public".

"Saw it in United States in 2008 and in other countries," says Erickson. "The issue is that when the activities of a private company they may eventually incur a risk involving other public rescue, it is good that the public is concerned and that regulators act and to ensure that risks are appropriate."

In contrast, Calabria mentions as an example the fall of the stock market in 1987, "when the Federal Reserve flooded the city of liquidity, I thought was the overreaction of the regulators and the fed to every setback which led to an area of complacency, in the sense that regulators are always protect us".

Protesta en TampaJamie Dimon's meeting with the shareholders of JPMorgan in Tampa Tuesday provoked protests of "outraged" in that city.

"I think that if there is an occasional mishap that do not put the system to its knees, really strengthens the system in the long term," adds Calabria.

"Focus on the Volcker rule and things so this case of JP Morgan is out of place." There are much larger failures in our financial system. "What happened between 2002 and 2005, with three years of a real federal funds rate negative, essentially paying people to borrow, was in my opinion the recipe for disaster, and we are repeating her."

Rule Volcker, part of the Dodd-Frank Act, imposed commercial restrictions on financial institutions, especially in the field of speculation which do not benefit customers, to prevent disasters like the 2008. Jamie Dimon is one of his most ardent critics.

But we would have avoided the mistake of JP Morgan with more regulation? "To some extent can be avoided with more regulation, but a banking system that does not suffer losses or mistakes is not valid for us," says Calabria.

"I am in disagreement with the implicit presumption that the objective is a system to test for errors." All human systems make mistakes, the thing is to limit them. In this case, JP Morgan made a bet and lost, but the financial system continues. "I am concerned think that regulation will clean the system of risks, which is ridiculous, because such an attitude creates more risks and makes us more vulnerable."

Jennifer Erickson defends regulation in the context of the electoral process in the United States.UU.: "the American people have a real option in terms of policy differences." Mitt Romney said it reversed Dodd-Frank, while Barack Obama expressed that what happened last week shows the urgent need for reform. "I think that here the people remembers acutely the pain of 2008 and 2009 and that much of the country continued to suffer that pain and understand why we must have a strong financial sector."

In that regard, the spokesman for the White House, Jay Carney, said that President Obama had struggled much to enhance the supervision of us banks and investment houses and events at JP Morgan demonstrated the importance of fully implementing a reform on Wall Street.

"This is one of the best managed banks," the own Obama he stated in an interview on television. "If it had happened with a bank not so strong or so lucrative, we should have spoken."

The FBI, the Federal Bureau of investigation of EE.UU., already announced an investigation into losses of JP Morgan, which could lead to criminal charges.

This Monday the Bank confirmed the resignation of a high Executive involved in losses, Ina Drew, the head of the investment Office of the Bank and who had more than 30 years with the institution and who had been allocated a juicy bonus.

Losses originated from a small unit of the Bank in London. According to reports, Achilles Macris, responsible for the Department of
investment, and Javier Martín-Artajo, the same unit, will be dismissed, as well as the corridor Bruno Michel Iksil, known as "the London whale" and directly responsible for the failed operation.

"I understand that they are still under consideration if they will make or not bonds employees that are going", says Marc Calabria, referring to the case of Ina Drew. "They fired people." In a very short time they threw to at least three employees. I would contrast this with any regulator has lost their jobs despite repeated failures. "I refuse to think that we should punish the people simply for making a bad bet".



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Moody's lowers rating to the Spanish banking sector

The Agency Moody's risk assessment downgraded the rating of 16 Spanish banks, amid concerns over the deterioration of the country's financial problems.

Institutions affected by the reduction of one to three points include including CaixaBank, Banesto, Banco Santander and BBVA, as well as of the subsidiary of Banco Santander in United Kingdom.

The Agency explained that the Spanish banking sector is facing a wave of low-quality loans, with an economy in recession, a real estate market depressed and high level of unemployment.

Moody's also said to have taken into consideration the risky exposure of the banking sector Spanish to the rest of the so-called eurozone debt crisis.

The rating of the Spanish banking sector is now below the greater part of the financial system of Western Europe



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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

How to contain the banking panic?

Clientes de un banco en Atenas, Grecia.The banking panic could spread if Greece comes out of the eurozone.

Every day more are those who wonder if their savings are safe on the banks of the countries most affected by the crisis in the eurozone. Is there something they can do the Governments of Europe to contain the banking panic?

The fear of a playpen (limit to transfers and withdrawals of deposits) is evident among many Greeks.

The withdrawal of money has been constant since two years ago, but has accelerated in the last ten days after the parliamentary elections.

In view of the lack of understanding between the parties that support the European rescue and those opposed, increasingly more observers predict that in a matter of weeks Greece will leave the euro.

But the concern does not stop there.

If Greece leaves the euro, Bank panic is could quickly spread more weakened economies of Europe, including Spain and Italy, according to experts.

In Spain, for example, a decrease in the money deposited in banks has produced during the crisis, but experts do not know if attributed to the rise in unemployment or a growing fear.

The own Minister of Economics Spanish, Luis Guindos, tried Tuesday to quell the rumors about a possible playpen by claiming that it is "nonsense".

But also of making statements, what strategy can follow Governments in a delicate situation?

US$ 3.8 billion: fall of money deposited in Greek banks in the last ten days - 2% of the total.

$91,000 Million: fall of money deposited in Greek banks from January 2010 to March 2012.

According to experts consulted by BBC World, the most appropriate response is the coordination of European leaders.

To avoid a banking panic, countries often have a deposit guarantee fund, as it is the case of Spain, to which the clients of the Bank in bankruptcy can go to retrieve their savings, but their resistance is limited.

"They are designed to respond to the bankruptcy of one or two large banks, but not for a massive withdrawal of money", as he told BBC World Spanish Economist Luis Viceira, Harvard professor.

If Greece announces its abandonment of the euro, Greek savers empobrecerían of the overnight, and in other European countries in trouble many may fear their Governments to adopt a similar decision

Before possible capital flight, it believed Viceira, the best brake would be strong EU countries to ensure unlimited liquidity to banks of weak countries.

"Immediately after the Greek announcement, would be crucial an announcement in this regard of the European Central Bank and of several European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel", says Viceira.

The Harvard Professor stresses that the announcement should be immediate: warns that in the era of banking online, savers enough them minutes to make a transfer.

Luis de Guindos, ministro de Economía español.The Minister of economy Spanish ensures that a playpen is a "meaningless".

The experts consulted agree that it is essential to make the Greek departure announcement by surprise. This is the standard each time that a Government has to communicate a decision with negative consequences for the pockets of citizens.

Thus recommended several of the finalists of the Wolfson Prize, a British ideas competition on the best way that a country to abandon the common currency without causing the disappearance of it.

The winner will be announced in July and will receive US$ 400,000, the second better equipped after the Nobel Prize.

One of the finalists, Jonathan Tepper, from Variant Perception consultant, proposed that the exit is made by surprise in a weekend and that euro banknotes are prints with any brand until they have printed and begin to circulate the new.

Tepper tells BBC world believed that other countries will abandon the euro in the hands of Greece and does not rule out that corralitos despite that in principle, the rules of the European single market prevent it, and that Governments refuse impose.

"Provided that there has been devaluations, Governments have denied that they would do." He spent in Mexico in 1994, in Thailand in 1997, in Russia a year later... ", it exemplifies Tepper.

Cola en un banco de Buenos Aires en 2001.After the playpen, the Argentine peso lost 75% of its value against the US dollar.

Columbia Professor Xavier Sala-i - Martin also believes that the surprise factor is essential, but believed more likely that Greece is the only one to leave the euro and warns that we must differentiate between two types of controls: the playpen and the barn.

"The corralito was what imposed Argentina in December of 2001, before the devaluation and supposed that savers could only withdraw the equivalent to US$ 250 a week," he told BBC World Professor - Martin.

"This isn't disposable in a country as Spain if there is panic and banks not can give money to all those requesting", says.

"The second part of the playpen, that can happen in Greece but surely not in Spain, is what the Argentines called the barn," he continues.

"Once they have hijacked your money in dollars (the Argentine peso was convertible in US dollars), or in this case in euros a month, back you but not in euros, but in drachmas".

In a matter of months, the value of euro banknotes in Argentine pesos lost 75% of its value to the dollar, impoverishing millions of Argentines.



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