Spain and the ghost of the peseta

Spain tries desperately to not be in the same mirror that Greece.

The eye of the storm of the eurozone has relentlessly reached Spanish territory. But a very important European country could even consider leaving the euro?

Spain is feeling fragile.

A rumor that Bankia - the Bank the Spanish Government intervened recently - was losing depositors, was enough to ensure that they lowered their actions this week, before recovering on Friday.

Then came the news that Moody's - credit Bureau - was lowering the rating of several Spanish banks.

In Madrid he returned to shine the Sun and elegant cafes followed thrilled tourists. There was no tear gas, as in Greece, nor wailing nor gnashing of teeth.

Actually there was not any siege of any bank. But we are still that feeling of fragility, of which Spain can deal with its current difficulties, but not new. Enough is enough.

The new difficulties loom mainly due to the case of Greece.

If Greece were to leave the euro, there is no doubt that bond markets focus your attention on Spain and would put to the test the strength of the so-called "firewall" with which the European Union maintains having covered the Nations that wish to remain in the common currency.

The truth is that the current firewall seems more a fire extinguisher, with all its features: must be used correctly, there may be errors and it can be ended before the fire.

"If people start to believe that the possibility of a new peseta is not a crazy hallucination, they could get their euros and take them elsewhere"

Pablo Triana, of the College of business administration and management.

So the risk is that the day after Greece go, interest rates required by anyone to lend money to Spain are unacceptably high.

And Spanish business and many individuals might think that it is wise to visit its banks and get your euros or send them abroad.

What could we do in these circumstances?

Sitting in a cozy square near the Parliament building of Spain, overlooking a pair of tranquil banks (no queues, in fact without people) I asked Pablo Triana, of the College of business administration and management, that envisaged the next day to a game of Greece of the euro.

He agrees that at this time there is no siege to banks. But if Greece is, that could change. It would certainly be rational that Spaniards worry.

"If people start to believe that the possibility of a new peseta is not a crazy hallucination, they could get their euros and take them to another part."

Triana argues that the problem that could cause, social disorder and anger, would be difficult to Spain but also for Europe.

"The Spanish people never before doubted the euro." "There never was a questioning that this was good for Spain and that was something permanent to Spain"

Gayle Allard, Professor of Economics at the Instituto de Empresa.

He asks this interesting question: "Will Spain come to the stage that the country does not want to stay at the euro?".

That is the point. No one expects that an economy as large and central to the economy of Europe is forced out of the single currency.

But if the costs of staying also were too big, then the same Spaniards could take the decision to go it alone.

Gayle Allard, Professor of Economics at the Instituto de Empresa, says that the psychological impact would be devastating.

The Spanish people, says he never doubted the euro. "There never was a questioning that this was good for Spain and that was something permanent for Spain".

If that were to change, everything would change.

Not only in the world of the economy, but a deeper political and even cultural level, Spain resentiría pain which happened and the final disappointment of the failure of the project.

So, Germany, that is the message of Spain.

As says Christina Manzano, Fride Research Center, there should be a "clear signal" of Berlin that Spain is going to be defended of the markets of bonds at any cost.

What Apple is talking about is a mixture of economic measures - including a relaxation of austerity and will allow the European Central Bank to exercise the powers necessary to ensure that banks with indefinite sums of money in cash-along with a more subtle but equally important political commitment.

To put it more simply: "a commitment to Europe".

From Spain the message is clear and urgent: Chancellor Merkel, is your turn.

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