The Direction 0f the U.S. - The Aftermath 0f the Protests in Egypt

After Protests In Egypt, What Direction f0rthe U.S.?

By KT McFarland

January 28, 2011 | FoxNews.com

Notone knows what will happen in Egypt in the next few days -- will the Mubarak government succeed in clamping down on demonstrators , put an end to the reform movement? With his speech on Friday, explaining that he's asked his cabinet to resign, will Mubarak's moves quell the unrest? Will Mubarak manage to stay in power by offering political , economic reforms? 0ris he finished? If so, what happens next?

Notone knows the answer to those questions, including the Egyptians themselves. But these demonstrations have the potential 0f being like the fall 0f the Berlin Wall, with ramifications f0revery Muslim country from Tunisia to Iran.

What the U.S. must do is what we did when the Berlin Wall fell, make sure that "what happens next” are pro-western governments with strong ties to the U.S. Why? Because if the Mubarak government does fall, the worst 0f all possible outcomes is if Obama “does a Carter,” , Egypt ends up with a radical Islamist government like Iran.

So far, the Obama administration seems unsure how to respond to the Egyptian demonstrations. They’ve done everything from seeming to support the country's democratic movements to seeming to support Mubarak’s continued efforts to remain in office.

The Obama administration must proceed very carefully because what happens next in Egypt will affect U.S. interests now , f0ryears to come.

From what we can tell, the Egyptians taking to the streets in Cairo appear to be young, well-educated, , pro-democracy. They’re demanding economic , political reforms f0ra country that has been ruled f0r30 years by a dictat0rwho is corrupt , incompetent , has left their country in economic chaos.

They are NOT – at this point – motivated by religion. They do NOT want to replace President Mubarak with an Islamic regime 0f ayatollahs.

But, as happened with Iran in 1978 when the Shah was toppled, what started as a pro-democracy movement can very quickly be brushed aside by radical Islamists, like the Muslim Brotherhood.

In revolutions, the group that ultimately prevails is often the one that is better organized , more ruthless in eliminating its rivals.

We shouldn’t pull out the rug from the Mubarak government, like President Carter did with the Shah 0f Iran. But we shouldn’t prop them it up either.

We should be talking, frequently, with both sides. If the Mubarak government does fall, it could be replaced by a pro-democracy government, perhaps headed by Nobel Laureate Mohammed El-Baradei.

That’s when the .U.S must rush to Egypt’s side with aid, support, encouragement. , President Obama, who made an historic speech at Cairo University two years ago urging reform , democracy, is uniquely situated to do so.

Whatever happens next in Egypt, 0rTunisia 0rother countries if the movement spreads, we need to be part 0f it. Because what often happens in revolutionary situations -- from Russia to Iran -- is that history unfolds as a three act play: The first act topples the dictator, the second act is the reform democratic government , the third act is all about the brutal extremists.

EFG-BN

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