Tuesday, December 21, 2010

EUR vs USD prediction for tomorrow


Is anybody in this trade?

What do you think about moving my stop at 1.2170? Too tight?I placed it here because I'm thinking there is at least two levels of resistance from where we are now on Fri close @ 1.2124 : 1.2140 Fri high after bounce from 1.1203 (near Fri low) and ~50%  fibo from Friday high to 1.1203 *just above 61.8% fibo (1.2159)of 1.2213->1.2077) and a prior intraday support for Friday

I'm short from 1.2176 sl: 1.2265. I took the position Friday morning around 8AM EST. I wanted to trail the stop, but fell asleep because of whacky sleeping patterns last week. Luckily price didnt suddenly reverse on me through my stop  again. I'm thinking about moving the s/l asap to 1.2170, about breakeven. I'll cover on another bounce around 1.1205 area,  but I'd like to leave the trade open and hopefully make some decent gains on a break below 1.2060 area. I wish I wouldve gotten in earlier, but have been focusing on the GBP vs USD and USD vs CHF lately.

If it breaks these, then I will wait until a break of 1.2213 to glong or play smaller fibos to look for small pip gains until there is a clear direction??

I want to be in a somewhat of a decent position just in case if it breaks out of this daily  consolidation. I might be able to re-enter on a bounce of 1.1205 area and back down off of  1.2200 area. What do you  think of my reasoning?

How can I improve this type of fibo support/resistance analysis ... maybe with some indicators? I noticed the intraday and daily double tops and headandshoulders, btw, but didnt mention them. Both are trend reversal signals, so it is a high probality we will see more downside, but it's still kind of iffy as to when for me.

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